The peak of global oil demand will be the highest ever recorded, reaching 103 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2030, a figure confirmed by BP’s latest annual outlook. This new peak forecast, delayed by five years, is a stark indicator that the energy transition has stalled, making the 2050 net-zero target highly unlikely.
BP’s revised figures reflect an enduring reliance on crude. The long-term forecast for oil consumption in 2050 has also been raised by 8%, climbing to 83 million b/d. Natural gas demand projections for 2050 saw a slight increase, now set at 4,806 billion cubic meters a year. This overall upward revision underscores the deep challenge facing global climate goals.
The primary driver of this delay is the global priority given to national energy security, amplified by geopolitical turmoil. BP’s chief economist points to the intensifying effects of the war in Ukraine, Middle East conflicts, and rising trade tariffs. This security-first mandate may create low-carbon ‘electrostates,’ but the report also warns that it strongly incentivizes nations to rely more heavily on domestically produced fossil fuels rather than volatile imported alternatives.
The slow pace of transition has severe climate consequences. BP’s modeling indicates that cumulative carbon emissions are on track to breach the critical 2∘C carbon budget limit by the early 2040s. The company warns that this extended delay will substantially raise the economic and social costs associated with necessary climate mitigation. To meet net-zero 2050, oil demand must drop drastically to approximately 35 million b/d by that date.
Despite rapid growth in renewables, oil is forecast to remain the largest single source of primary global energy supply, holding a 30% share in 2035. Renewables are set to increase from 10% to 15% of the primary energy supply by 2035, but are not expected to surpass oil’s market share until the late 2040s, demonstrating the entrenched position of fossil fuels.